Happy Friday! The crypto market looks shaky but still intact, BRN analysts told The Block, amid a softer macro tone.
In today's newsletter, JPMorgan says Strategy is key to bitcoin's next move, the IMF warns stablecoins may weaken central bank control, spot BTC+3.82%
ETFs see their largest daily outflow in two weeks, and more.
Meanwhile, the Coinbase-incubated Ethereum Layer 2 Base network rolls out a bridge to Solana.
P.S. Don't forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It's a great read — and just like The Daily, it's free to subscribe!
In today's newsletter, JPMorgan says Strategy is key to bitcoin's next move, the IMF warns stablecoins may weaken central bank control, spot BTC+3.82%
ETFs see their largest daily outflow in two weeks, and more.
Meanwhile, the Coinbase-incubated Ethereum Layer 2 Base network rolls out a bridge to Solana.
P.S. Don't forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It's a great read — and just like The Daily, it's free to subscribe!
JPMorgan says Strategy's resilience is key to bitcoin's price direction in the near term
JPMorgan analysts said Strategy's ability to keep its enterprise-value-to-bitcoin ratio above 1 and avoid selling BTC is the key driver of the cryptocurrency's next move.- The bank argued that matters more than miner stress, even as falling hashrate, tougher economics, and China's renewed crackdown squeeze high-cost miners into selling bitcoin.
- The analysts said their estimated modelled bitcoin production cost has dropped to $90,000, noting sub-production trading continues to pressure miners and shape market sentiment.
- JPMorgan highlighted Strategy's new $1.44 billion cash reserve as a buffer that lowers forced-sale risk and stabilizes bitcoin's near-term outlook.
- The bank said MSCI index exclusion risk is largely priced in after Strategy's 40% slide since October, with downside limited unless bitcoin stays below production cost for an extended period.
- A positive MSCI decision or steadier conditions could spark a strong rebound toward pre-Oct. 10 levels, the analysts concluded, with JPMorgan's volatility-adjusted comparison to gold still pointing to a theoretical bitcoin price of $170,000 within six to 12 months.
- Meanwhile, Strive urged MSCI to "let the market decide" on bitcoin treasury companies…………