- Stifel analysts predict bitcoin could fall to about $38,000, using a trend line drawn through the lows of major crashes since 2010.
- The firm argues that bitcoin's relationship with the dollar and global money supply has flipped since 2025, with the cryptocurrency now weakening as the dollar strengthens and liquidity tightens.
- The analysts say bitcoin's growing correlation with Nasdaq and growth stocks, combined with the Federal Reserve's hawkish rate cuts and rising tech-sector borrowing costs, could deepen the current downturn.
Analysts at the 136-year-old firm predict the bitcoin price could crash to as low as $38,000.
"Already down -41% from the high, bitcoin super-bears have followed a linear trend suggesting a potential low of~$38K," the team led by Barry B. Bannister said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
They're looking at straight line drawn across the low points of every major bitcoin crash since 2010. Bitcoin slumped 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018 and 76% in 2022. A line connecting those market bottoms slopes upward and points to $38,000 as the potential nadir for the current slide.............
Stifel predicts bitcoin (BTC) price crash to $38,000. Yes, you read it right.
Stifel analysts predict bitcoin could fall to about $38,000 using an analogy of the movie "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" to explain the bearish forecast.
